Finding statistical edges in prediction markets.
How to find and measure edge: CLOB prices, expected value, Kelly sizing, and the three best sources of edge in prediction markets.
Weather EdgeWeather markets on Polymarket are systematically mispriced. Professional forecasts vs retail pricing — and a real 25x example.
Market MechanicsThe stale last-trade price shown in most tools can be hours old. Here's how to read live order book data and why it matters.
Bet SizingHaving edge is only half the equation. Kelly Criterion tells you exactly how much to bet to maximise long-run growth — with worked examples.
Sports EdgeBookmakers spend millions on modelling. When their implied probability diverges from Polymarket prices, one of them is wrong — and it's usually not the bookmaker.
Case StudyA Chicago temperature market priced at 4¢ when professional forecasts said 80%. The full trade, reasoning, and what it means for weather markets.